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Surge Modelling and Forecasting

Forecasting and warning systems depend upon the cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. Such systems make use of in-situ measurements (such as tide buoys), Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Numerical Ocean Prediction (NOP) systems. the magnitude of a surge is generally directly related to the strength of onshore winds, the local geometry of the coastline, and the bathymetry of the offshore seabed.

Generally, the most appropriate output is the Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE) at a given location and time, i.e. the sea level taking into account tides, waves, effects of a storm surge, and (usually) precipitation and river flows.

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